UFC 214 BETTING CHEAT SHEET: ODDS ANALYSIS AND PREVIEW
When it will not be the largest battle sports event of the summer, UFC 214 is certainly the largest MMA event of the season. In addition to the Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier rematch, the card features two extra name bouts, contenders and enjoyable battles throughout.
Brad Taschuk of MMAOddsBreaker.com, takes a look at where the betting odds have moved for many 12 fights since launching lines (indicated in brackets) were published and he provides his thoughts on each matchup. All lines are courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Jon Jones (-280) vs. Daniel Cormier (+220)
Jones was a -170 favored the first time these two fought and a few naively expected the line would be similar this time around. But, it appears that Jones’ legal problems, run-in with USADA and layoff hasn’t had the effect anticipated on the line. It is difficult to blame bettors either, Cormier is now 38-years-old, has been through some hard battles since their first meeting, and Jones won each component of the first fight. Expect something like – if not dominant – this time around.
Irrespective of how badly he takes his groundwork, Jones is the type of fighter that rises to the occasion like few others. He, this is the ultimate event. Cormier is his biggest rival and he’s the chance to recover the belt that he never lost against him. That combination will lead to a tremendous performance from Jones. Expect him to dispatch of Cormier and re-assert his dominance at the branch.
Tyron Woodley (-210) vs. Demian Maia (+160)
Similar to the main event, this line hasn’t seen much motion. Given the contrasting styles, that’s not hard to trust. There is a contingent of people who think that Woodley is going to starch Maia using the first punch he yells. They might well be correct. The other side of the coin consists of those who think that Maia can shut the distance, latch onto Woodley such as he has so many others and only predominate his grappling. They could be right as well. Woodley’s tendency to back himself against the cage and play counter-puncher will be his passing. Maia has gotten so good at going into the clinch if not under pressure he should have the ability to create Woodley miss after. Despite a high-level wrestler the likes of Woodley, once Maia gets his hands on you, that is a huge trouble.
The Brazilian’s ability to commence Jiu-Jitsu exchanges without hitting traditional takedowns is next to none (he has perfected the only leg to rear take) and Woodley being the kind of man who likes to explode from positions will only hurt him after that occurs. It’s sort of surprising that Maia by Sub pays an excess dollar (+275 as of Thursday morning), because Woodley won’t have the ability to endure 25 moments of Maia engaging in the type of fight he wishes to. The other option is most likely a quick Woodley KO (+350 for your champ in Round 1, by the way).
Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200) vs. Tonya Evinger (+600)
This fight being bettable is dependent on what kind of bettor you are. In case you have no issue throwing a huge lineup in a parlay, the Cyborg moneyline (at almost -1400), or Cyborg ITD (nearly -700) are almost sure things. If that’s not really your style, neither will probably be laying nearly 2-to-1 on a prop such as Cyborg Round 1.
The only case I could make for a drama relies on Evinger’s strength. She has taken damage in many of her fights and persevered and she likely won’t come back to conquer Cyborg in this one after a tough start, there is an external shot she can endure five minutes. However, even the costs for”Fight Starts Round 2″ and Cyborg Round two have dropped substantially (down to +150 and +450, respectively), which makes them less appealing even to someone who’s always on the hunt for some round robin legs.
Robbie Lawler (-175) vs. Donald Cerrone (+135)
It’s a shame this fight is taking place after both men have seemingly passed their peak in terms of durability, since a war with Lawler and Cerrone at their best are a thing to behold. This battle will return to distance management and in-fight decisions. Lawler wants to be indoors, Cerrone wants to be outside. The problem for Cerrone is that Lawler’s constant pressure will eventually see him get inside and at that point, anticipate Cerrone to be much too ready to oblige him that the warfare he is looking for. While this will grant us the type of struggle we want to see, do not expect it to end well for Cerrone.
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